A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

城市建成环境对居民体力活动的影响 ——以福州市的经验研究为例   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张延吉  陈小辉  赵立珍  马妍 《地理科学》2019,39(5):779-787

利用福州中心城区的社会调查、POI、道路网、用地性质等数据,在社区尺度探究城市建成环境对居民休闲型中高强度体力活动的影响。研究发现：① 低密度土地利用与体力活动时长呈正向关联,功能单一和邻近主干道则对体力活动起到抑制作用。② 体力活动目的地对不同人群具有差异化影响,体育用地和付费运动场所仅能促进中高阶层和中高收入者的体力活动,而周边公共运动设施的丰富程度更具普适性意义。③ 通过纳入运动偏好和单独分析保障房、单位大院及房改房住户达到规避居住自选择的目的,证明上述建成环境特征对体力活动的影响是独立且稳健的。  相似文献   

The Impact of Urbanization on Groundwater Quantity,Quality,Hydrothermal Changes and Its Countermeasures     

Wanbin Huang  Chunhua Yan  Xiaonan Zhang  Guoyu Qiu 《地球科学进展》2020,35(5):497-512

Groundwater, as a drinking water source for nearly one third of the world’s urban population, plays a strategic role in the development of urbanization. The object of this study is urban areas with the largest demand for water resources, the heaviest load of groundwater pollution and the most intense development of underground projects. This study sorted out the eco-hydrological problems such as the variation of the groundwater hydrological process, the groundwater pollution, and the urban heat island of groundwater in urban areas under the background of urbanization. Furthermore, the mechanism of changes in the quantity, quality and heat of groundwater was also systematically analyzed, and the intrinsic interaction among these three factors was revealed. The study showed that changes in land use and land cover caused by the urbanization are the main reasons for the variation of groundwater hydrological process. The pollution load of urbanization construction and domestic production waste has aggravated the deterioration of groundwater quality. The increase in vertical heat flux caused by urbanization gives rise to the warming of groundwater. By summarizing the eco-hydrological problems and causes of groundwater in urbanized areas, several suggestions were proposed: \mathrm{①} Establishing the evaluation method and system of urban groundwater resources; \mathrm{②} Speeding up the technological breakthroughs of groundwater pollution control; \mathrm{③} Improving the regional control strategies for groundwater pollution; \mathrm{④} Optimizing the allocation of groundwater resources. This study will provide the theoretical basis and technical support for ensuring urban water safety, building ecological civilized cities and further promoting the sustainable development of economy and society.  相似文献   

黑龙江省东宁县五道沟金矿成矿流体特征及矿床成因     

方焱  何谋惷  丁振举  徐怡然  魏连喜 《现代地质》2020,34(2):254-265

五道沟金矿位于太平岭金-铜多金属成矿带,矿体呈脉状赋存于下二叠统双桥子组碳质板岩中,并严格受NE向断裂控制。根据野外观察和岩相学研究,将五道沟金矿成矿划分为早期石英阶段、石英-黄铁矿阶段、石英-碳酸盐阶段3个阶段,其中石英-黄铁矿阶段为主要成矿阶段。石英流体包裹体显微测温和拉曼光谱分析表明,金成矿期流体为中低温、低盐度的含CO₂流体。氢氧同位素分析表明,成矿流体是岩浆水和大气降水的混合流体。黄铁矿微量元素特征表明矿区内黄铁矿为岩浆热液成因;矿石硫同位素数据显示其具有岩浆硫和地层硫的混合特征。铅同位素组成图上,矿石铅、围岩铅和岩浆岩铅三者呈线性关系,具有同源特征,矿石中²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb和²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb值明显高于围岩的相应值,暗示了矿石铅为围岩铅淋滤产物。矿石同位素特征表明双桥子组碳质板岩应为金矿矿源层。综合矿床地质特征、流体包裹体和H-O-S-Pb同位素分析,认为五道沟金矿为造山型金矿。  相似文献   

天山南坡高冰川覆盖率的木扎提河流域水文过程对气候变化的响应   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

赵求东  赵传成  秦艳  苌亚平  王建 《冰川冻土》2020,42(4):1285-1298

木扎提河是天山南坡冰川面积覆盖率最大（48.2%）的河流， 流域径流过程对气候变化极为敏感， 为了合理管理和规划水资源， 确保水资源的可持续利用， 亟需定量评估气候变化对该流域水文过程的影响。以VIC-CAS分布式水文模型为计算平台， 利用实测的径流和两次冰川编目间的冰川面积变化数据开展了模型的多目标参数化校正和验证， 有效提高了模拟结果的“真实性”， 然后通过数值模拟结果结合观测数据定量解析了流域径流的组成、 变化特征及对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明： 木扎提河总径流集中在暖季（5 - 9月）， 占全年总径流量的77.9%， 冰川径流、 融雪径流和降雨径流分别占总径流量的66.6%、 26.4%和7.0%。1971 - 2010年木扎提河流域气温和降水呈显著增加趋势， 由于降水的增加， 降雨和融雪径流均呈增加趋势， 但冰川径流呈现明显减少趋势， 导致总径流呈现下降趋势。在RCP4.5情景下， 未来该流域气温呈现明显升高趋势， 降水表现为微弱下降趋势； 气候变暖后， 更多降水以降雨形式发生， 未来降雨径流将明显增加， 降雪和融雪径流已于20世纪90年代达到峰值， 随后明显减少； 冰川面积将持续萎缩， 冰川径流于21世纪10年代达到拐点， 随后明显减少， 导致河道总径流量也将明显减少。  相似文献   

基于简化力学模型的隧道锚极限承载力估值公式     

王东英  汤华  尹小涛  杨光华  姜燕 《岩土力学》2020,41(10):3405-3414

悬索桥隧道式锚碇的设计理念为锚碇夹持岩体协同承载，因而承载能力远超同体积的重力式锚碇。但因目前对围岩协同作用认识尚不充分，在当前隧道式锚碇设计中仍保守地忽略锚碇和岩体间的挤压效应。为弄清锚碇?岩体协同承载的机制，揭示隧道锚承载能力提高的本质，通过分析隧道式锚碇建设至成桥全过程受力，建立隧道锚的简化力学模型，并引用Mindlin应力解分析了荷载沿锚碇轴向的传递规律以及荷载产生的作用于锚碇?岩体间的挤压应力分布，最终给出了隧道式锚碇极限承载力的简化估算方法，并通过伍家岗大桥隧道锚工程实例分析了结果的合理性。所得结论主要有：锚碇?岩体界面力主要由锚碇自重和锚碇?岩体相互挤压产生；锚碇?岩体界面附加应力自后锚面向前锚面呈先增后减的变化趋势，在距后锚面约1/3L处达到应力峰值；以容许抗剪强度为破坏判据解得的伍家岗长江大桥隧道式锚碇的极限承载力为3 504 MN，约为16倍的设计荷载，与室内试验值基本吻合。  相似文献   

滇西陇川断陷盆地地热水化学特征及循环过程     

黄琴辉  张华  康晓波  王波  刘海峰  柴金龙  黄钊  王燕 《中国岩溶》2020,39(6):793-801

通过对陇川盆地开展地热地质调查，查清其地热资源分布:盆地内共出露地热点11处，热储结构类型为带状型和层状型，盆地中部为层状型，两侧盆地边缘为带状型，其中北西部受断裂控制明显，南东部受节理裂隙控制明显。其储热层为变质岩及新近系芒棒组的花岗质砂砾岩、细砂岩；地热水受大气降水影响明显，循环深度都在1 600 m以上，大部分在1 800~2 400 m之间，主要来源于深部热源，通过断裂、裂隙及砂砾石孔隙作为导水、储水上涌通道，接收来自山区补给的地下水混合出露于地表，补给距离在1.5 km以上，如南宛河温泉温度最高，地下水循环深度最深，补给距离最远，达10 km；盆地北东和西部水温高，循环深度深。   相似文献   

铁同位素分析测试技术研究进展   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

秦燕  徐衍明  侯可军  李延河  陈蕾 《岩矿测试》2020,39(2):151-161

铁是地球上丰度最高的变价元素,在自然界大量分布于各类矿物、岩石、流体和生物体中,并广泛参与成岩作用、成矿作用、热液活动和生命活动过程。铁同位素组成对地球化学、天体化学和生物化学方面提供重要的信息,是同位素地球化学研究领域的热点。铁同位素的精确测量是开展相关研究的重要基础。本文评述了铁同位素测试技术的研究进展,主要包括:①溶液法测试铁同位素样品纯化过程中阴离子树脂的改进;②质谱分析从传统的热电离质谱法发展为多接收电感耦合等离子体质谱法;③激光微区原位测试技术的研发等。在此基础上,对测试过程中会导致产生铁同位素分馏的步骤和校正方法进行了总结,并对各种测试方法的优缺点进行了评述。本文认为:溶液法分析流程长且复杂,但分析精度高(0.03‰,2SD)、方法稳定;微区原位分析方法从纳秒激光剥蚀发展为飞秒激光剥蚀,脉冲持续时间更短、脉冲峰值强度更高(可达10~(12)W),聚焦强度超过10~(20)W/cm~2,使其具有分析速度快、空间分辨率高的优势。微区原位法可以从微观角度去讨论铁同位素变化的地球化学过程,但基体效应的存在限制了微区原位铁同位素的广泛应用。因此,缩短溶液法分析流程,开发系列基体匹配的标准样品,是铁同位素分析方法研发的方向。  相似文献   

不同结构林带防风效能风洞模拟     

李晓烨  王克俭  谷建才  刘启国  崔严 《中国沙漠》2019,39(6):118-125

防风林带结构是影响防风效能的主要因素。建立不同宽度、不同株行距林带防风效能与林带后距离之间的统计模型，可以为防风林建设提供指导性意见。通过风洞实验，在11 m·s^-1风速下，对4种宽度、5种株行距林带的背风面0~10H（H为林带高度）的风速进行测定，采用曲线参数估计法、傅立叶模型、SSF模型（Sum of Sin Functions），构建了不同结构林带防风效能与林带后距离间的统计模型。结果表明：傅立叶模型拟合不同宽度林带的防风效能与林带后距离的关系效果最优，可决系数（R²）均在98%以上；SSF模型拟合不同株行距林带的防风效能与林带后距离的关系效果最优（R²>0.98）。根据构建的统计模型，风速为11 m·s^-1左右时，林带宽度8 m（两行一带）的防风林的防风效能存在明显优势；5种株行距的林带中，株行距为8 m×8 m的防风林带本试验条件下防风效果最好。  相似文献   

Evaluation System for Yunnan Cultural Tourism Routes Based on a Five Component Model: Case Study of the Ancient Tea-horse Road in the South of Yunnan     

WANG Yan  XIE Hongzhong  ZHU Tao 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(5):553-558

Cultural tourism routes can reveal and protect cultural tourism heritage by means of cultural tourism in the “time category” and the “space category”. The construction of an evaluation system for cultural tourism routes and the evaluation, scoring and grading of existing and potential cultural tourism routes are the key to the protection of heritage, history and culture along these routes, and the key to encouraging the standardization, branding and sustainable development of various formats on the routes. Yunnan cultural tourism routes are diverse and rich in resources, and their developmental foundation is good. However, the tourism development and cultural development activities occur along separate lines and there is a lack of unified management. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on information collection, information analysis, problem diagnosis and improvement of status in the local practices of Yunnan cultural tourism routes, and to guide the sustainable development of Yunnan cultural tourism routes. Based on the advanced experience of COE (Council of Europe), UNESCO WHC (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, World Heritage Committee) and ICOMOS(International Council on Monuments and Sites), this paper comprehensively analyzes the decisive criteria for line evaluation by interpreting and summarizing the connotations of cultural tourism routes, and determines that the evaluation of cultural tourism routes should include lines. Five aspects―the theme, the participating subject, the object itself, related activities and multi-party value―are used to construct a five-component model. At the same time, based on the consumer utility function, a complete route evaluation and hierarchical system is constructed. Then, taking the Ancient Tea-horse Road cultural tourism route as an example and using the expert scoring method and the analytic hierarchy process, the actual scores and grades of the Ancient Tea-horse Road cultural tourism route are determined, and countermeasures and suggestions for its sustainable development are proposed. The paper also verifies the applicability and practicability of the evaluation system, and promotes and improves the feedback evaluation system. The aim is to at promote and widely apply the evaluation system of cultural tourism routes, realizing the transformation from individual cases to joint cases, and promoting the standardization and sustainable development of cultural tourism routes.  相似文献